The Empirical Analysis of Monetary Policy on Balance of Payments Adjustments in Nigeria: A Bound Testing Approach

This study investigates the impact of monetary policy on balance of payments (BOP) adjustment in Nigeria within the periods, ۱۹۸۰-۲۰۱۵. The study used the bound testing approach to show the relationship that exists among monetary policy variables (money supply, domestic credit, inflation and exchange rate), output growth, and trade balance and BOP adjustment in Nigeria. The study shows that there is a long-run relationship between monetary policy variables and balance of payment adjustment. The findings further revealed that in the long-run, money supply and trade balance have positive impact on balance of payments adjustment in Nigeria. On the other hand, domestic credit, exchange rate, inflation rate and gross domestic product suggest a negative impact on balance of payments in Nigeria. An important observation from the empirical estimate is that money supply has more of a long-term impact on BOP adjustment than other monetary policy variables. This study suggests that in stabilizing the BOP position of the country, the apex bank should try as much as possible to balance money supply and demand for money so as to avoid distortion in price.

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Keywords: Monetary Policy Variables ، Output ، trade ، Balance of Payments ، Nigeria. JEL Classification: E۵۲ ، C۶۷ ، F۱ ، J۳۳ ، O۵۵