Investigating the Temporary and Permanent Influential Variables on Iran Inflation Using TVP-DMA Models

I nflation forecast is one of the tools in targeting inflation by the central bank. The most important problem of previous models to forecast the inflation is that they could not provide a correct prediction over time. However, the central bank policymakers shall seek to create economic stability by ignoring the short-term and temporary changes in price and regarding steady inflation. On this basis, in the present paper, it has been aimed to provide nonlinear dynamic models to simulate the inflation in the economy of Iran using quarterly data referring to ۱۹۸۸- ۲۰۱۲ as well as TVP-DMA and TVP-DMS models. These models can provide changes in input variables as well as changes in the coefficients of the model over time. Based on the results, the possibility of growth of currency in circulation, economic growth, also the growth of deposits either visual or non-visual variables, is more remarkable in modeling of inflation in economy of Iran. In addition, the predictive power of dynamic models presented in this study is more than other models.

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Keywords: Dynamic Modeling ، Inflation Forecasting ، TVP-DMS Model. JEL Classification: E۳۱ ، E۳۷ ، C۱۱ ، C۵۳