Globalization and its Effect on the Environment: A Case Study of Iran in the Presence of Structural Breaks

The world economy is moving more and more towards globalization, and there has been significant growth in international trade, especially in the last two decades. Increasing economic integration in the world has led to the importance of environmental issues. The present study seeks to investigate the effects of globalization on the quality of the environment along with the variables of GDP, energy consumption, and industrialization index, considering the structural break in Iran between ۱۹۷۱ and ۲۰۱۷. The Lee-Strazicich test investigated the stationarity of the variables, and co-integration between variables with multiple intervals was measured using the Maki test. Using the FMOLS approach, it was found that globalization, energy consumption, and industrialization have positive and significant effects on environmental pollution (CO۲ emission). The relationship between GDP and the squared GDP with CO۲ emissions is negative and positive, respectively; the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis is not confirmed in Iran and is U-shaped. Also, according to the results of the Toda-Yamamoto causality test, there is a one-way causality from energy consumption to CO۲ emissions, globalization, and GDP. In addition, a one-way cause was observed from GDP and industrialization to globalization and from CO۲ emissions to GDP.

کلیدواژه ها:

CO۲ emission ، Energy consumption ، Toda-Yamamoto ، Variance Decomposition ، Maki Cointegration