Validation of the MuLBSTA Scale in Predicting the Mortality Risk of SARS-CoV-۲ in the Iranian Population; A pilot study

Background: MuLBSTA is a scale designed for easy clinical assessment of the mortality risk of viral pneumonia patients. Objectives: The overall purpose of conducting this research is to investigate the effectiveness of MuLBSTA in estimating the mortality risk of COVID-۱۹ patients. Methods: A cross-sectional study was performed on ۹۹ COVID-۱۹ patients from December ۲۰۲۰ to February ۲۰۲۱. The MuLBSTA scores of patients were calculated, and their survival and risk rates were estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method. The ROC diagram was used for the logistic model assessment to determine the best mortality prediction cut-off point. Data were analyzed in SPSS version ۲۱ at the ۰.۰۵ significance level. Results: Of the ۹۹ monitored patients, ۶۹ (۶۹.۶۹%) recovered, and ۳۰ (۳۰.۳۱%) died during the study period. The mean MuLBSTA scores of patients who recovered and died were ۱۰.۵۱±۳.۹۹ and ۱۶.۵۳±۳.۰۲, respectively. A statistically significant positive relationship was found between MuLBSTA scores and mortality (p<۰.۰۰۱). The area under the ROC curve (AUC) of MuLBSTA in predicting mortality during hospitalization was calculated to be ۰.۸۸ (۹۵%CI=۰.۸۲-۰.۹۵, SE=۱.۵۵). Conclusion: MuLBSTA scores are highly correlated with the severity of COVID-۱۹. Therefore, MuLBSTA can serve as a tool for rapid situation assessment and swift decision-making about the treatment approach and the allocation of hospital resources to COVID-۱۹ patients.

کلیدواژه ها:

Clinical Decision Rules ، SARS-CoV-۲ ، mortality ، Viral Pneumonia