A Dynamic Model for Predicting the Impact of Vaccine Avoidance and Health Protocols on the Covid-۱۹ Outbreak
محل انتشار: مجله تفکر سیستمی در عمل، دوره: 2، شماره: 2
سال انتشار: 1402
نوع سند: مقاله ژورنالی
زبان: انگلیسی
مشاهده: 74
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شناسه ملی سند علمی:
JR_JSTINP-2-2_004
تاریخ نمایه سازی: 10 تیر 1402
چکیده مقاله:
The COVID-۱۹ pandemic is one of the most critical issues in the world today. Although many countries have been able to control the infection, much research is still needed to uncover the complex dynamics of virus transmission. This study aimed to utilize a mathematical model for analyzing epidemiological data of infectious diseases, aiming to comprehend their behavior, predict future trends, and investigate the influence of external factors on key indicators. This model extends the Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) framework by incorporating additional populations, such as vaccinated individuals, asymptomatic cases, and hospitalized patients. It also developed dynamics related to vaccination avoidance behavior and adherence to health protocols. It is coded in MATLAB ۲۰۱۸-b software and is executed for ۳۶۰ days. The results of the simulation showed that it is not possible to achieve the desired level of immunity from vaccine injection without following health protocols. On the other hand, considering the level of infection, increasing the participation rate in receiving vaccines and reducing the population of vaccines can control the epidemic. Therefore, a change in social behavior and an increase in the amount of vaccination can increase the awareness of society in reducing the avoidance of vaccination and improving compliance with health protocols.
کلیدواژه ها:
نویسندگان
Hamed Jabari
Mathematics Secretary of Education, Bushehr, Iran.
Hamid Shabandarzadeh
Department of Industrial Management, Faculty of Business and Economics, Persian Gulf University, Bushehr, Iran.
Ahmad Ghorbanpour
Department of Industrial Management, Faculty of Business and Economics, Persian Gulf University, Bushehr, Iran.