A ‎M‎odel of Coronavirus Pandemic Spread with Lockdown and Quarantine

In this work, a researcher develop SHEIQRD (Susceptible-Stay at home-Exposed-Infected-Quarantine-Recovery-Death) coronavirus pandemic spread model. The disease-free and endemic equilibrium points are calculated and analyzed. The basic reproductive number R_۰ is derived and its sensitivity analysis is done. COVID-۱۹ pandemic spread is die out when R_۰leq ۱ and its persist in the community whenever R_۰>۱. More than ۱۰% of lockdown or home quarantine, above ۵۰% and ۳۰% identification and isolation of expose and infected individuals respectively, and reduction home quarantine return rate(less than ۱۰%) can be mitigates the pandemics. Finally, theoretical analysis and numerical results are consistent.

کلیدواژه ها:

Coronavirus disease ، Lockdown ، isolation ، Theoretical Analysis ، numerical simulation