Forecasting project completion time applying earned value management and exponential smoothing considering project seriality

With the development of communities, project management has become a key ability to gain more achievements. One of the project management processes is project control in which the project executing process is monitored and evaluated. One of the main methods of project control is the earned value management method. Applying this method, the progress of the project is evaluated with the help of a number of parameters and indicators, and the project completion time is estimated. This paper presents a model combining earned value management and exponential smoothing method considering the project seriality and ۱۹ real projects were examined to predict their completion time. According to the results, the model in both serial-parallel and parallel configurations had higher accuracy than the serial configurations. Also performance of the exponential smoothing when the static exponential smoothing parameter is applied was better than the case the dynamic exponential smoothing parameter is applied. It is concluded that the model with a static smoothing parameter is recommended to forecast the completion time of projects with parallel and serial-parallel configurations

کلیدواژه ها:

Project control ، Project completion time forecasting ، Earned value management ، Exponential smoothing ، Project seriality