Estimating survival rates and prognostic factors in COVID-۱۹ patients: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Background and Objective: Coronavirus disease ۲۰۱۹ (COVID-۱۹) is a contagious disease caused by a newly identified coronavirus. Our knowledge about survival rate and prognostic factors of the disease is not established well. This study proposed to estimate the survival function of COVID-۱۹ in western Iran.Materials and Methods: This retrospective cohort study was performed in Hamadan province, western Iran. The study included patients that referred to the provincial hospitalsduring ۷ months period from February ۲۰ to September ۲۰, ۲۰۲۰. The follow up of each subject was calculated from the date of onset of respiratory symptoms to the date of death. Demographic and clinical data were extracted from patients’ medical records. Kaplan-Meier method, log-rank test, and Cox regression were used for the analysis of the data.Results: The overall ۱, ۵, ۱۰, ۲۰, ۳۰ and ۴۹-day survival rate were ۹۹.۵۷%, ۹۵.۶۱%, ۹۱.۱۵%, ۸۷.۳۴%, ۸۶.۹۱%, and ۸۶.۷۴% respectively. A significant association was observed between survival time with age, gender, history of traveling to contaminated areas, co-morbidity, malignancies, and chronic diseases, and hospital units.Conclusion: Educational programs and access to healthcare could be implemented as modifiable factors to reduce the mortality rate and burden of this disease in COVID-۱۹patients.

کلیدواژه ها:

Survival ، Epidemiology ، Mortality ، COVID-۱۹ ، Iran