Evaluating the Rising Secular Trends of Incidence and DALY of Breast Cancer in Iran: Join point Regression

Introduction and Aims: The second most common cancer in Iranian women is breast cancer after skin cancer. Our objective is calculated to the burden of breast cancer in Iranian female and predicted it by ۲۰۳۰.Methods and Materials: To assess the burden, firstly, the incidence and Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALY) rates of breast cancer reported in the two sites of http://globocan.iarc.fr and http://healthdata.org from ۱۹۹۰ to ۲۰۱۷ were extracted based age-standardized, In the next step, according to the incidence and DALY rates and APC (annual percentage change) provided in the previous step, we predicted the incidence for the next years according to the formulas.Results: In our study, AAPC(average annual percentage change) for incidence was found to be ۳.۱۲%(CI: ۲.۹۷-۳.۲۶) and AAPC= ۱.۰۷%(CI: ۰.۹۲-۱.۲۲) for DALY. The predicted incidence it reaches from about ۳۹ to ۶۰ per ۱۰۰,۰۰۰ and for DALY from about ۳۴۲ to ۳۹۳ years per ۱۰۰,۰۰۰.Conclusion: the burden of breast cancer will increase in Iran. Promotion of awareness, early detection, treatment, and palliative care must be done in Iran by policymakers.

کلیدواژه ها:

Incidence ، DALY ، Breast Cancer ، Iran.