A Scenario Analysis Through Fuzzy Cognitive Map Modeling for Sustainable Development Goals Survival In the Context of the COVID-۱۹ Pandemic: A Case Study of Iran
سال انتشار: 1401
نوع سند: مقاله ژورنالی
زبان: انگلیسی
مشاهده: 100
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شناسه ملی سند علمی:
JR_IJIEPR-33-2_013
تاریخ نمایه سازی: 23 خرداد 1401
چکیده مقاله:
To respond to the urgent call for preventive action against COVID-۱۹ pandemic implications for societies, this research is carried out. The main aim of our research is providing a new insight for the effects of the newly emerged restrictions by COVID-۱۹ on the SD Goals (SDGs). This research applied a qualitative approach for supporting the SDGs achievement post-COVID in Iran, as a developing country in the Middle East, in two phases. In the first phase, using a fuzzy Delphi method, the SDGs affected by COVID-۱۹ were identified. In the next phase, a fuzzy cognitive map, as a qualitative system dynamics modeling, was conducted to specify the key interconnections among the SDGs post COVID-۱۹. Finally, three strategies including focus on people in vulnerable situation, support for industrial units and small and medium-sized enterprises, and national aggregation to Fight COVID-۱۹ were examined. As a result, different scenarios associated with the three proposed strategies were tested based on the identified interconnections among the SDGs to reduce the potential negative effects of COVID-۱۹ crisis on the achievement of the SDGs. The results provide a decision support for stakeholders and policy makers involved in SD action plan.
کلیدواژه ها:
COVID-۱۹ ، Sustainable Development goals ، ۲۰۳۰ Agenda for SD ، fuzzy cognitive map ، fuzzy Delphi method ، scenario analysis
نویسندگان
Mariam Ameli
Department of Industrial Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran affiliation
Somayeh Sadeghi
Department of Industrial Engineering and Management Systems, Amirkabir University of Technology (Tehran Polytechnic), Tehran, Iran