An analytical model for confronting the Omicron variant during COVID-۱۹ pandemic: A system dynamic approach

The global outbreak of COVID-۱۹ began in December ۲۰۱۹ in Wuhan, China, and affected the entire world in a short time. Over time, the emergence of new species of the disease, the pace of response to it have also been strongly affected, and with the emergence of the newest species called Omicron. Knowing and reviewing the system and publishing publications in the community is essential for sound policies. System dynamics can be adopted as an approach to the behavior evaluation of the COVID-۱۹ pandemic. The present study introduces a system dynamic model to explore the effects of different factors on the pandemic and therapeutic and non-therapeutic modalities. Vaccination is evaluated as the main approach to prevent the disease. The influential factors of pandemic prevention and control are examined based on the SEIR model and policies such as vaccination. The safest way to prevent this epidemic is vaccination. Therefore, a policy that benefits the entire population and will be necessary is producing and purchasing vaccines. From ۱۹ July ۲۰۲۱, the rate of vaccine imports to Iran has increased significantly, and therefore it is predicted that by the end of ۲۰۲۲, Iran's general vaccination will end, after which the number of cases and mortality rates will decline. Vaccines are the ultimate solution to contagious diseases to control their spread and provide safety to deal with the infection. The results suggested that the fatality rate of the susceptible population was reduced by vaccination and protective protocols.

کلیدواژه ها:

Coronavirus ، Pandemic ، Vaccination ، System dynamic ، Quarantine ، Omicron