Use of time series models to evaluate reservoir efficiency parameter for optiniization of reservoir operation

Time series modeling mainly has two uses in hydrology and water resources: (I) for generation of synthetic hydrologic time series. (2) forecasting hture hydrologic series. Generation of synthetic series are generally needed for reservoir sizing, for determining the risk of failure (or reliability) of water supply for irrigation systems, for planning of future reservoir operation, for planning operation during an ongoing drought and similar applications. But these models are very different and have some limitations and special applications and capabilities. SPIGOT is a package that was made for generation and forecasting of hydrologic time series which uses simple / disaggregation models for this purpose. The main objectives of this study to use some of the simple time series models for simulation and optimization of reservoir with low and high flow variability as well as to study the effects of uncertainty into such results. Finally by using a simple optimization method jointed to SPIGOT, its capability for producing best reservoir operation rule, at high and low flow variability are studied.