Comparing the number of children ever born (CEB) of rural and urban migrant women to Tehran by regression tree model

Background & Objective: Migration, in any forms and by any motivations or outcomes, as a demographic phenomenon, has various cultural and socio-economic effects on local, regional, national and international levels. On the other hand, fertility plays an important role in health and population studies and researchers have examined its changes and trends in various aspects. The aim of this research was modeling the mean number of children ever born (CEB) for women who have left their cities or villages and migrated to Tehran city using regression tree model. Methods: Data was obtained from ۲% of raw data from the census of ۲۰۱۱ and analyzed by regression tree model. Tree models are nonparametric statistical techniques which do not need complicated and unreachable assumptions of traditional parametric ones and have a considerable accuracy of modeling. These models are associated with simple interpretation of results. Therefore, they have been used by researches in many fields such as social sciences. Results: Age, educational level, job status, cause of migration, internet use for urban migrant women and age for rural migrant women were assumed as influential covariates in predicting the mean number of CEB. Conclusion: Regression tree findings revealed that urban migrants who were in higher age groups, lower educational levels, unemployed and have not used internet have had more mean number of CEBs.

کلیدواژه ها:

Women ، Migration ، Tehran ، Children Ever Born ، Regression tree ، زنان ، مهاجرت ، تهران ، فرزندان زنده به دنیا آمده ، رگرسیون درختی.