Dynamic Effects of Accession to the WTO on Industrial Sector in Iran: Application of the RDCGE Model

The present study aims to analyze the long-term impact of tariff reductions to be mandated in the event of accession of Iran to the World Trade Organization (WTO) on the industrial sector using the Recursive Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (RDCGE) model. For this purpose, the model was calibrated for the ۲۰۱۱ social accounting matrix of Iran. In the baseline scenario, it was assumed that the Iranian economy will experience annual growth of ۲% without accession to the WTO, which is the same rate as the population growth. In the alternative scenario, the tariff reduction simulation was performed based on the average tariff commitments of ۲۲ developing countries acceded to the WTO. Based on the results, industrial production and exports will shrink by ۳.۴ and ۳.۵%, respectively, over the ۳۰ years after joining the WTO, leading to an ۸۱% gap between the production levels in the alternative and baseline scenarios at the end of this period. JEL Classification: I۳۸, C۶۸, F۱۳.

کلیدواژه ها:

World Trade Organization ، Recursive Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Model ، Trade Liberalization ، MFN Tariffs ، Nash equilibrium