Adaptation to Climate Change for Sustainable Development of Water Resources in Bakhtegan Watershed (Marvdasht sub-basin)

The issue of climate change is known as a major environmental crisis because its consequences can mainly affect various social, economic, and ecosystem components of a region. In addition to lack of rainfall, rainfall fluctuations on a daily, seasonal and annual scale are among the characteristics that cause insufficient confidence in receiving the minimum rainfall required for agricultural use, surface flows, groundwater aquifers, and human consumption. Due to the fluctuations of precipitation in different areas of the country and the increase in air temperature, the occurrence of droughts in the country is inevitable. The occurrence of these droughts will have a very harmful effect on the agricultural and economic sectors of the country. Fars province is also located in the arid and semi-arid regions of Iran. This study tries to determine how much of the available water resources are reduced due to climate change. The results of this study indicate that in the prediction section of precipitation parameter using the LARS-WG model, this model works well in the validation section and the predictions indicate the high accuracy of the model. Also, the results in the precipitation forecast section for Marvdasht sub-basin indicate a decrease in precipitation under two scenarios: RCP۲.۶ and RCP۸.۵.

کلیدواژه ها:

Key words: Climate change ، Agricultural products ، Sustainable development ، changing cultivation pattern.