Study of the influence of the Coronavirus on the country’s insurance industry in the form of vector Auto regression

The outbreak of epidemics such as Corona, Ebola, SARS, etc. has always led to unexpected incidents in the economy of the countries. The outbreak of the coronavirus in china and its spread to other countries impacted the financial markets all around the world severely. Among the global impacts of the coronavirus pandemic, one could mention the increased unemployment rate, the imposition of severe shocks on the global economy, the decline of crude oil price, the decline of global trade in most countries of the world, getting closed off to foreign trade, etc. The present study seeks to investigate the influence of the Coronavirus pandemic on the performance indicators of the country's insurance industry. For this purpose, the statistical data of ۱۹۹۱-۲۰۲۰ have been used in a vector auto regression. The coronavirus pandemic has been included in the model as an exogenous shock in the present study. Results indicated that the coronavirus spread has resulted in increased premiums and damages paid in life and non-life insurances. Results revealed that the coronavirus pandemic influenced the insured aspects of life more than the uninsured aspects. It must be mentioned that the influence of the coronavirus on premiums was negative in countries with a stable economy, but positive in counties with high inflation and unstable economy. In fact, the annual increase in the ransom rate in the country –which increases the third party insurance premium- and the inflation and exchange rates result in increased premium production of the insurance companies in the country. Thus, the country’s economic growth and recession over the past years do not have a negative influence on the premium increase, only the rate of premium growth has increased or decreased.

کلیدواژه ها:

coronavirus ، pandemic ، production premium ، damages paid ، the insurance industry JEL classification: G۳۲ ، G۲۱ ، C۲۲ ، D۳۳