Modeling the Dynamics and Forecasting the fourth Peak of COVID-۱۹ in Iran Using PSO Algorithm

Background and aims: Iran had passed the third peak of COVID-۱۹ pandemic, and was probably witnessing the fourth peak at the time of this study. This study aimed to model the spread of COVID-۱۹ in Iran in order to predict the short-term future trend of COVID-۱۹ from April ۲۳, ۲۰۲۱ to May ۷, ۲۰۲۱.Methods: In this study, a modified SEIR epidemic spread model was proposed and the data on the number of cases reported by Iranian government from February ۲۰, ۲۰۲۰ to April ۲۳, ۲۰۲۱ were used to fit the proposed model to the reported data using particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm. Then the short-term future trend of COVID-۱۹ cases were predicted by using the estimated parameters.Results: The results indicated that the effective reproduction number increased in Nowruz (i.e., Persian New Year, ۱۴۰۰) and it was estimated to be ۱.۲۸ in the given period. According to the results from the short-term prediction of COVID-۱۹ cases, the number of active confirmed cases in the fourth peak was estimated to be ۵۱۶ ۴۱۱ cases on May ۲, ۲۰۲۱.Conclusion: Following the results from our short-term prediction, implementing strict social distancing policies was found absolutely necessary for relieving the Iran’s health care system of the tremendous burden of COVID-۱۹.

کلیدواژه ها:

SARS-CoV-۲ ، Coronavirus ، Epidemiology ، Pandemics ، Forecasting