A scenario analysis through fuzzy cognitive map modeling for sustainable development goals survival in the context of the COVID-۱۹ pandemic: a case study of Iran
محل انتشار: هجدهمین کنفرانس بین المللی مهندسی صنایع
سال انتشار: 1400
نوع سند: مقاله کنفرانسی
زبان: انگلیسی
مشاهده: 217
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شناسه ملی سند علمی:
IIEC18_187
تاریخ نمایه سازی: 1 دی 1400
چکیده مقاله:
To respond to the urgent call for preventive action against COVID-۱۹ pandemic implications for societies, this research is carried out. The main aim of our research is providing a new insight for the effects of the newly emerged restrictions by COVID-۱۹ on the SD Goals (SDGs). This research applied a qualitative approach for supporting the SDGs achievement post-COVID in Iran, as a developing country in the Middle East, in two phases. In the first phase, using a fuzzy Delphi method, the SDGs affected by COVID-۱۹ were identified. In the next phase, a fuzzy cognitive map, as a qualitative system dynamics modeling, was conducted to specify the key interconnections among the SDGs post COVID- ۱۹. Finally, three strategies including focus on people in vulnerable situation , support for industrial units and small and medium-sized enterprises, and national aggregation to Fight COVID-۱۹ were examined. As a result, different scenarios associated with the three proposed strategies were tested based on the identified interconnections among the SDGs to reduce the potential negative effects of COVID-۱۹ crisis on the achievement of the SDGs. The results provide a decision support for stakeholders and policy makers involved in SD action plan.
کلیدواژه ها:
COVID-۱۹ ، Sustainable Development goals ، ۲۰۳۰ Agenda for SD ، fuzzy cognitive map ، fuzzy Delphi method ، scenario analysis.