Estimation of energy demand in Bushehr province in the household sector using LEAP model

According to the studies conducted in the field of energy demand modeling and based on available information and statistics, try to predict the demand for electricity, natural gas, liquefied petroleum gas and kerosene in the household sector of Bushehr province based on previous data (year ۲۰۰۵ to ۲۰۱۵) for a period of ۲۰ years (۲۰۱۶ to ۲۰۳۵). After explaining the methodology of the model, the Lip model has been selected as a model to simulate useful energy demand. The quantitative results of this model are examined in the form of three growth scenarios based on "BAU scenario", "LOW scenario" and "HIGH scenario". The BAU scenario shows that the population growth rate does not change, the distribution of the urban population and the percentage of utilization of household equipment. The LOW scenario is based on a decrease in population growth rate and the distribution of the urban population compared to the BAU scenario. Finally, the last scenario under consideration is the HIGH scenario. This scenario indicates an increase in the growth rate in the effective parameters of energy consumption in the studied sectors. The amount of energy consumption in the final year of planning based on the BAU scenario, LOW scenario and HIGH scenario has increased by ۷۶%, ۱۰۰% and ۸۵%, respectively, compared to the beginning of the planning year.

کلیدواژه ها:

Energy demand ، LEAP model ، scenario ، BAU scenario ، LOW scenario ، HIGH scenario.