A BAYESIAN MODEL FOR SEISMIC HAZARD MAPPING IN GREECE

The principal objective of the present study is that of applying the Bayesian theory to the seismic data of Greece in order to obtain seismic hazard maps in terms of the peak ground acceleration. The probability of exceedance of any value of the investigated parameter of the ground motion is obtained by combining the probability distributions that describe the seismicity of the sources with the attenuation functions. The central part of Greece is considered to be affected by three seismic sources which are modeled by dipping planes. This model permits the use of a magnitude-dependent rupture relationship. The input of the model is obtained from subjective information as well as from the instrumental data of the region.