Climate change modeling of wheat wild relative (GP۱) in Iran: Conservation aspect

Climate changes have severe negative effects on biodiversity, extinction as well as population decline. In addition, climate change affects a global threat to food security by creating tensions and reducing agricultural yields. A wide range of wild relatives of crops have been endangered due to negative effects of climate changes, and their protection is essential. Many of first-degree wild relatives (GP۱) of bread wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) distributed in Iran. Therefore, predicting their future distribution based on climate modeling is very important for conservation planning. Based on field floristic and herbarium data, the distribution points of these species were prepared and geo-referenced. MaxEnt modeling was used to investigate the distribution status of the mentioned species in Iran in ۲۰۵۰ and ۲۰۸۰ under two scenarios of optimism (RCP۲.۶) and pessimism (RCP۸.۵) (Phillips et al., ۲۰۰۶). The results of this study showing that the most important factors affecting distribution patterns of mentioned species are the average temperature of the coldest month of the year, precipitation in the driest month, precipitation in the driest season, average temperature of the wettest season, annual precipitation, altitude, soil organic carbon and the cation exchange capacity of the soil. Among the mentioned species, T. spelta Koern. has the highest distribution increase (۹۶%) under the optimistic scenario of ۲۰۸۰ and the highest decrease (-۹۸%) is related to T. dicoccoides L. in both optimistic and pessimistic scenarios by ۲۰۵۰ and ۲۰۸۰. The two following species T. momococcum L. and T. urartu Thumanjan ex Gandilyan will have a decrease of -۱۸% and -۱۳%, respectively, under a pessimistic scenario. Accordingly T.spelta has not any particular problem in the future. However, T. dicoccoides should be protected through ex-situ conservation. In addition, the other species should be protected in protected areas by in-situ conservation method

کلیدواژه ها:

Food security ، South west Asia ، In-situ conservation ، Ex-situ conservation ، Poaceae