The most contributung biovariables in geographical distribution of tulips based on ecological niche modelling (ENM)

The genus Tulipa L. (Liliaceae) comprises ca. ۱۰۰ species worldwide and ۱۲ in Iran, and naturally restricted to central Asia, Africa, Europe, and Middle East. Tulips have beautiful and eye-cattching flowers and have special importance in terms of agriculture, economy, and ornamentation. Climate change can have considerable effects on biodiversity, phenological shifts, and geographical distribution of its species. The main aim of this work is to predict the most important climatic factors in distribution of Tulipa species under the present climatic scenario. Ninetheen bioclimate variables were obtained from WorldClim ver. ۲.۱, and altitudinal layers’ dataset of collected tulips were extracted from our current project. Analysis were implemented in Maxent ver. ۳.۴.۱ with ۵۰۰۰ iterations and Crossvalidate model. Models and area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) was assessed to exhibit the capability of the model against actual observations. Graphical outputs were displayed using QGIS ver. ۲.۱۸.۱۵. The test AUC showed acceptable results in all studied specimens, and colorful maps revealed the geographical distribution of each species very well. In addition, Jackknife tests introduced temperature as the most important contribution factor among all studied samples. Indeed, the current study highlight the significance of climate ranges, especially temperature, in plant geographical occurrence. Here we suggest a future and historical ecological niche modelling in order to track changes in the geographical distribution of Tulipa species through time.

کلیدواژه ها:

AUC ، Climate ، Jackknife ، Maxent ، Tulipa