Identifying the span of changes in the distribution of Eurasian marsh frog (Pelophylax ridibundus) in the context of climate change

Global assessments of the biological and conservational status of various species have shown that amphibians are more impacted by climate change than other vertebrates. Therefore, the purpose of this study was the investigation of habitat potentials of Pelophylax ridibundus in Iran. In the present study, considering the importance of the effects of climate change on the distribution potentials of species, an attempt was made to use the SDM statistical package and to use four models GLM, RF, BRT and Maxent to identify the distribution potentials of swamp frogs in Iran in current climatic conditions and ۲۰۸۰ (RCP۸.۵ scenario). The occurrence points were collected by the authors. Also, the climate layers were prepared from the WorldClim global site .Using the VIF test, among ۱۹ climatic variables, independent variables were identified and used for modeling. Finally, in this study, the ensemble approach was used to reduce the uncertainty in modeling. The results of the study showed that in general, the Caspian Sea coasts, central Zagros, southern Zagros, and areas of southeastern Iran are favorable areas for the distribution of this species. Currently, areas in Gilan, Mazandaran, Golestan, Kurdistan, Bushehr, and Sistan and Baluchestan provinces and ۲۰۸۰ climate conditions, smaller areas in Mazandaran, Gilan, Kurdistan, Kermanshah, and Sistan and Baluchestan provinces have the greatest potential to for this species distribution. The results also showed that currently ۳۹.۲۴% and in the future climatic conditions ۳۱.۱۴% of areas with distribution potential are within the network of protected areas in Iran and the Bio۱۹ variable is the most influential variable in the species distribution. Although the species under study is on the Least Concern (LC) category, it is nevertheless recommended that conservation approaches be increased in these areas and to use the potential of existing protected areas to protect this species using appropriate and specific approaches.

کلیدواژه ها:

Amphibian ، Species distribution modeling ، Conservation ، Climate change