Iran’s Maize Import Policy Based on the Exchange Rate Volatility and Price Expectation

The present study has made an attempt to discuss the effects of exchange rate volatility and price expectation on maize imports in Iran from 1980 to 2013. In doing so, using the EGARCH technique for time series econometrics, price volatility variables for both exchange rate and final price have been calculated, and the time series for these variables have been extracted. Additionally, in regard to the expected import price, the related time series has been extracted using Hodrick-Prescott filter (HP). The empirical results indicate that exchange rate volatility and price volatility have had no significant effects on maize import, which is due to the fact that maize is a basic commodity and is imported by the official currency, therefore domestic price volatilities and the exchange rate do not have significant effects on maize imports. However, by freezing the exchange rate and not allocating official currency, the possibility of the exchange rate volatility affecting maize imports exists and this issue could affect the whole country’s food security. JEL Classification: Q17, F13, F31

کلیدواژه ها:

Exchange Rate Volatility ، Price Expectation ، Import ، Structural Break ، Maize