The Estimation of the Basic Reproduction Number for 2019 Novel Coronavirus

The average number of new cases infected by an infectious case in a susceptible population is called the basic reproduction number, 𝑅0. Estimation of the 𝑅0, has long been important to estimate the success rate of medical interventions. This paper estimates 𝑅0 for 2019 Novel Coronavirus in several countries, using the branching process model.The results show that the average rate of transmission of 2019 Novel Coronavirus is on average 3.57, which is a high rate among infection diseases.

کلیدواژه ها:

Basic Reproduction Number ، Epidemic ، Mathematical Modelling ، Branching Process.