Hubbertʼs Prediction for Iran Oil Reserves

Crude oil is one of the most important fossil fuels resources in the world, which due to low price and easy access is also the most consumed fuel in industry. Thus, analysis about the oil issues usually include evaluating production quality, setting price, exporting, forecasting production rate and situation of the reserves capacities. Iran ranks the 4th country in crude oil reserves of world and thus is one of the most important countries for this kind of analysis. In this paper Iran oil reserves is forecasted using Hubbertʼs theory. The reason for choosing this theory and the analyses will be discussed. It can be seen that due to numerical value of the Hubbertʼs theory, a detailed information from Iranʼs oil production rate like the maximum production rate and its peak year can be obtained. Comparison of Iranʼs production rate and the country exporting rate would reveal the amount of the crude oil selling. The remaining oil is probably used locally. Iran has lot changes in production rate unlike its rivals that has positives and negatives effects on energy policy that will be addressed in work.

کلیدواژه ها:

Iran reserves ، Hubbert theory ، energy forecasting ، production rate.