Earthquake Precursors and Earthquake Prediction

  • سال انتشار: 1394
  • محل انتشار: دومین کنگره بین المللی زمین شناسی کاربردی
  • کد COI اختصاصی: IAGC02_041
  • زبان مقاله: انگلیسی
  • تعداد مشاهده: 516
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نویسندگان

Omid Nejadkazem

Academic stuff, Department of Construction and Mineral Materials, Faculty of Electrical, Mechanical and Construction Engineering, Standard Research Institute, Karaj, Iran

چکیده

Earthquake prediction is a branch of the science of seismology concerned with the specification of the time, location, and magnitude of future earthquake within stated confidence limits but with sufficient precision that a warning can be issued. In 1970, scientist Extensive searches have reported many possible earthquake precursors, but, so far, such precursors have not been reliably identified across significant spatial and temporal scales. While many scientists still hold that, given enough resources, prediction might be possible, many others now maintain that earthquake prediction in inherently impossible. Earthquake prediction based on precursors can aim to provide fully quantified, timevarying, synoptic forecasts, which do not depart from physical and geological principles, and are amenable to formal testing. The well-known relations between mainshocks and aftershocks show that a set of aftershock is to a high degree predictable from the mainshock, so that, as a matter of principle, the mainshock is a precursor to its aftershocks. This study indicates that also earthquake prediction is not possible yet and it’s not inherently impossible and draws a map to find empirical evidences to find precursors and their attributes. Also complexity of mechanisms which relate precursors and geodynamical events, more and more investigations is needed in order to clearly and firmly establish a mathematical description of correlation between precursors and earthquakes.

کلیدواژه ها

Earthquake Prediction, Precursor, Radon Emission, Tectonic

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