Domino Accident Frequency estimation using Monte Carlo Simulation
- سال انتشار: 1386
- محل انتشار: پنجمین کنگره بین المللی مهندسی شیمی
- کد COI اختصاصی: ICHEC05_313
- زبان مقاله: انگلیسی
- تعداد مشاهده: 1986
نویسندگان
Chemical & Petroleum Engineering Department, Sharif University of Technology, Tehran, Iran.
Chemical & Petroleum Engineering Department, Sharif University of Technology, Tehran, Iran.
Chemical & Petroleum Engineering Department, Sharif University of Technology, Tehran, Iran.
چکیده
The instantaneous failure rate for any process equipment in isolation can be estimated using basic reliability relations. But there are some kinds of accidents in which equipment failures are the consequences of a primary accident in a neighboring facility. These accidents are called domino or cascading accidents. Although domino accidents are among the most destructive industrial accidents, there is not much pioneeristic works done on quantification of failure probabilities in domino cases. The analytical formulation of the domino accidents is usually complex and need a deep knowledge of probability rules. Even if the case is formulated, errors in calculation such as round-off error is very probable as the values used are all have small quantities and the number of possible scenarios are too high. A new methodology based on Monte Carlo simulation technique is proposed for frequency estimation of domino accidents in this paper. The simulation technique has shown advantages in comparison to analytical probability methods. The major advantage is non-dependency of the accuracy of the results to complexity of the system. In addition by using simulation techniques, failure probability can be calculated as a function of time.کلیدواژه ها
Process safety, Domino accidents, Frequency estimation, Monte Carloمقالات مرتبط جدید
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