The Projection of Iran’s Healthcare Expenditures By ۲۰۳۰: Evidence of a Time-Series Analysis
- سال انتشار: 1401
- محل انتشار: مجله بین المللی سیاست و مدیریت بهداشت، دوره: 11، شماره: 11
- کد COI اختصاصی: JR_HPM-11-11_018
- زبان مقاله: انگلیسی
- تعداد مشاهده: 110
نویسندگان
Health Economics, Management and Policy Department, Virtual School of Medical Education & Management, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
Department of Economics, School of Economics and Political Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran
Department of Health Management & Economics, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
National Institute of Health Research, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
Health Services Management Research Center, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran
چکیده
Background The projection of levels and composition of financial resources for the healthcare expenditure (HCE) and relevant trends can provide a basis for future health financing reforms. This study aimed to project Iran’s HCEs by the sources of funds until ۲۰۳۰.Methods The structural macro-econometric modeling in the EViews ۹ software was employed to simulate and project Iran’s HCE by the sources of funds (government health expenditure [GHCE], social security organization health expenditure [SOHCE], out-of-pocket [OOP] payments, and prepaid private health expenditure [PPHCE]). The behavioral equations were estimated by autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach.Results If there is a ۵%-increase in Iran’s oil revenues, the mean growth rate of gross domestic product (GDP) is about ۲% until ۲۰۳۰. By this scenario, the total HCE (THCE), GHCE, SOHCE, OOP, and PPHCE increases about ۳۰.۵%, ۲۵.۹%, ۳۴.۴%, ۳۱.۲%, and ۳۳.۹%, respectively. Therefore, the THCE as a percentage of the GDP will increase from ۹.۶% in ۲۰۱۶ to ۱۰.۷% in ۲۰۳۰. It is predicted that Iran’s THCE will cover ۲۲.۲%, ۲۳.۳%, ۴۰%, and ۱۴.۵% by the government, social security organization (SSO), households OOP, and other private sources, respectively, in ۲۰۳۰.Conclusion Until ۲۰۳۰, Iran’s health expenditures will grow faster than the GDP, government revenues, and non-health spending. Despite the increase in GHCE and total government expenditure, the share of the GHCE from THCE has a decreasing trend. OOP payments remain among the major sources of financing for Iran’s HCE.کلیدواژه ها
Health Expenditure, Health Insurance, Public Health Expenditure, Out-of-Pocket Payment, Health Financing, Iranاطلاعات بیشتر در مورد COI
COI مخفف عبارت CIVILICA Object Identifier به معنی شناسه سیویلیکا برای اسناد است. COI کدی است که مطابق محل انتشار، به مقالات کنفرانسها و ژورنالهای داخل کشور به هنگام نمایه سازی بر روی پایگاه استنادی سیویلیکا اختصاص می یابد.
کد COI به مفهوم کد ملی اسناد نمایه شده در سیویلیکا است و کدی یکتا و ثابت است و به همین دلیل همواره قابلیت استناد و پیگیری دارد.