بررسی تاثیر بخش تقاضای بازار آب بر الگوی کشت بهینه، درآمد کشاورزان و استفاده پایدار از منابع آب (محدوده مطالعاتی مشهد-چناران)

Demand management as a way to control consumption and manage water resource is concerned. Farm data of Mashhad- Chenaran plain through questionnaires and interviews was collected from ۱۳۰  representatives in ۲۰۱۳. All of them divided to two group of water consumption, mean’s that low consumption (<۱۰۰۰۰ m۳/ha) and high consumption(۱۰۰۰۰ m۳/ha ≤). Then mathematical programming model with due attention to four scenarios of water deficit (۱۰, ۲۰, ۳۰ and ۴۰%) was run for each group. Also sensitivity analysis was applied to study effect of water price on demand of water. Result showed while this strategy of water deficit make  ۹۹ and ۳۳.۶ million cubic meters of excess water in the two groups, the income of farmers increases ۱۵.۲ and ۶.۲ % in low and high consumption group respectively. Result of sensitivity analysis of water price showed that increase of water price does not cause significant changes in water use at low consumption group, but is different in high consumption group. Therefore, non pricing policy for example education, promotion and design of crop pattern is recommendable for low consumption group. For high consumption group, if increase of water price to extent water trading and to use water resources sustainability, water pricing policy is suggested. As well as paying subsidies to farmers may encourage them to non exploitation of surplus water.

کلیدواژه ها:

بازار آب ، برنامه ریزی ریاضی ، محدوده مطالعاتی مشهد-چناران ، منابع آب تجدیدپذیر