Simulation and prediction of land use and land cover change using GIS, remote sensing and CA-Markov model
- سال انتشار: 1399
- محل انتشار: فصلنامه جهانی علوم و مدیریت محیط زیست، دوره: 6، شماره: 2
- کد COI اختصاصی: JR_GJESM-6-2_007
- زبان مقاله: انگلیسی
- تعداد مشاهده: 247
نویسندگان
Department of Geography, Faculty of Arts, The University of Jordan, Amman, Jordan
Department of Geography, Faculty of Arts, The University of Jordan, Amman, Jordan
Department of Geography, Faculty of Arts, The University of Jordan, Amman, Jordan
چکیده
This study analyzes the characteristics of land use/land cover change in Jordan’s Irbid governorate, 1984–2018, and predicts future land use/land cover for 2030 and 2050 using a cellular automata-Markov model. The results inform planners and decision makers of past and current spatial dynamics of land use/land cover change and predicted urban expansion, for a better understanding and successful planning. Satellite images of Landsat 5-thematic mapper and Landsat 8 operational land imager for the years 1984, 1994, 2004, 2015 and 2018 were used to explore the characteristics of land use/land cover for this study. The results indicate that the built-up area expanded by 386.9% during the study period and predict further expansion by 19.5% and 64.6% from 2015 to 2030 and 2050 respectively. The areas around the central and eastern parts of the governorate are predicted to have significant expansion of the built-up area by these dates, which should be taken into consideration in future plans. Land use/land cover change and urban expansion in Irbid are primarily caused by the high rate of population growth rate as a direct result of receiving large numbers of immigrants from Syria and Palestine in addition to the natural increase of population and other socio-economic changes.کلیدواژه ها
CA-Markov model, Jordan, Land use/land cover change (LULC), population growth, Urban expansionاطلاعات بیشتر در مورد COI
COI مخفف عبارت CIVILICA Object Identifier به معنی شناسه سیویلیکا برای اسناد است. COI کدی است که مطابق محل انتشار، به مقالات کنفرانسها و ژورنالهای داخل کشور به هنگام نمایه سازی بر روی پایگاه استنادی سیویلیکا اختصاص می یابد.
کد COI به مفهوم کد ملی اسناد نمایه شده در سیویلیکا است و کدی یکتا و ثابت است و به همین دلیل همواره قابلیت استناد و پیگیری دارد.