Climate change and the effect of the distribution pattern of Trapelus ruderatus (Sauria: Agamidae) in Iran

Global warming is one of the greatest current challenges in conserving animals and their habitats. Climate change accompanied by human effects on habitats can cause species to risk population reduction and extinction. In this study, the effects of climate change on a species distribution pattern were evaluated during the current,2050 and 2070 time periods. For this aim, 19 bioclim variables were downloaded from www.worldclim.org in 30 arc second resolution. Then, all contributed layers were cropped for Iranian territory using ArcGIS 10.3. Pearson correlation coefficients were calculated using ENMTools 1.3 to discard the highly correlated variables (≥0.75) from the analyses. Finally, 6 variables (three temperature and three precipitation variables) were chosen for the analyses. Species distribution modeling was done using the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) method and habitat suitability for different times was predicted. According to results, the regions predicted to be most suitable for the presence of the species are the central and southern Zagros Mountain, but this may shift to the northwestern corner of Iran based on future predictions (up to 50 years). The most contributed variable for species presence was precipitation in the wettest month. By increasing CO2 level and global warming, precipitation will be decreased and restricted to higher latitudinal and elevation regions. The distribution pattern of Trapelus ruderatus is expected to be shifted to the temperate zone and to areas with a high degree of precipitation.

کلیدواژه ها:

Global warming ، Sauria ، Climate layers ، Adaptation ، Habitat