Tsunami of the elderly needing medical aids: evaluation of present resources and future necessities of the Iranian Health System for old patients from 2015 to 2100

Iranian population has experienced a high population growth rate (> 2.5%) during 1976-1991. About 25 million people from this generation will reach aging during 2036-2051 and so confront lots of medical problems in those years. The objective of this study is the assessment of power of the Iranian health care system for managing this large amount of medical needs during 2021- 2100. This study has applied the demographic-economic method of David Foot to calculate medical needs of the Baby boom during 2021- 2100, using the 2017 UN prospect of Iranian population and international and Iranian medical resources. Results of this study show that Iranian Baby boom will form more than 20 million olds during 2025-2050 and they will need a remarkable medical care in medical centers, personnel, assurances and equipment. The present amount of the medical services and the ability and capability of the governmental resources to solve this problem were compared with the amount of needs to show the unmanageability of this amount of medical demands in those years. The study concluded that Iranian healthcare system will not be able to meet this amount of medical needs and quick planning is required for preparation of governmental and non-governmental resources against this problem. Controlling and preventing aging disorders and applying experiences of the aged societies should be considered as a mandatory and urgent duty of the healthcare system .

کلیدواژه ها:

Medical Demography ، Geriatrics ، Medical Needs ، Aging ، Iranian Baby Boom