Probabilistic Assessment of Strong Earthquake Recurrence in the NW Segment of the North Tabriz Fault, Iran

In this paper, the time-varying hazard of rupture of the northwestern segment of the North Tabriz Fault is evaluated using a statistical method and a recurrence time distribution, allowing for data and model parameter values uncertainties. The North Tabriz Fault is a main seismogenic fault in Northwestern Iran. The conditional probability of rupture of the northwestern segment of the North Tabriz Fault using observed data of paleoseismic investigations and luminescence analyses is estimated to be 11.11%, in the next 100yr, under Brownian Passage Time recurrence time distribution. The sensitivity of results to the value of long-term slip rate data is examined. It is observed that the present estimate is very sensitive to the values of the long-term slip rate and its uncertainty.

کلیدواژه ها:

Iran ، Tabriz ، North Tabriz Fault ، Seismic Hazard ، Time- Dependent Model