Economic Damage and Sectors’ Value-added Losses in Iran under COVID-۱۹ Lockdown Scenarios
- سال انتشار: 1403
- محل انتشار: Iranian Economic Review Journal، دوره: 28، شماره: 2
- کد COI اختصاصی: JR_IER-28-2_010
- زبان مقاله: انگلیسی
- تعداد مشاهده: 161
نویسندگان
The Research Institute for Science, Technology, and Industry Policy, Sharif University of Technology, Tehran, Iran
Department of Economics, Imam Sadiq University, Tehran, Iran
The Research Institute for Science, Technology, and Industry Policy, Sharif University of Technology, Tehran, Iran
چکیده
The COVID-۱۹ disease has serious economic consequences in all countries of the world. In this paper, the impact of the pandemic on gross domestic product (GDP) and the value-added of Iranian economic sectors is simulated based on input-output analysis. The delay caused by the pandemic will not necessarily be compensated in the coming years, so it is important to understand the long-term impact of COVID-۱۹ on the economy. Using Iran’s economy input-output tables produced by Iranian authorities, it is possible to measure the economy’s response to the COVID-۱۹ shock. The nine shock scenarios are considered based on the Oxford Government Response Tracker to make the assumptions as close to reality as possible. The median scenario implies that Iran’s output and GDP will decline by ۲.۶% and ۱.۷%, respectively, in ۲۰۲۱ and ۲۰۲۲. The scenarios range from the optimistic one with fewer restrictions, resulting in a ۲.۸% GDP decline, to the pessimistic scenario with major restrictions and barriers leading toward a GDP decrease of ۷%. The huge value-added losses were in the “libraries, museums, and other cultural activities” sector, and the largest increase was in the “health care” sector.کلیدواژه ها
coronavirus, Covid-۱۹, GDP, Input-Output Analysis, scenario planningاطلاعات بیشتر در مورد COI
COI مخفف عبارت CIVILICA Object Identifier به معنی شناسه سیویلیکا برای اسناد است. COI کدی است که مطابق محل انتشار، به مقالات کنفرانسها و ژورنالهای داخل کشور به هنگام نمایه سازی بر روی پایگاه استنادی سیویلیکا اختصاص می یابد.
کد COI به مفهوم کد ملی اسناد نمایه شده در سیویلیکا است و کدی یکتا و ثابت است و به همین دلیل همواره قابلیت استناد و پیگیری دارد.