S. Nazaretyan - Professor, Director of Northern Department NSSP, Armenia,
H. Suvaryan - Researcher of Northern Department NSSP, Armenia,
H. Karapetyan - Researcher of Northern Department NSSP, Armenia,

The probable source model for earthquakes in Armenia with M≥5.0 is offered by generalization and creation of the base of tectonic, seismotectonic, seismological, geophysical and other data.It consists of four stages: а) accumulation of elastic strains; b) discompaction (dilatation and diffusion, formation of the faults; c) formation of a main fault; d) aftershock activity. For each stages the development of the processes in source zone, its duration, probable precursors, possibility of seismic prediction (the time of the main event, site and magnitude) are given.