Muhammad Afaq Hussain
Zhanlong Chen
Run Wang
Safeer Ullah Shah
Muhammad Shoaib
Nafees Ali
Daozhu Xu
Chao Ma

Landslides are natural disasters that have resulted in the loss of economies and lives over the years. The landslides caused by the ۲۰۰۵ Muzaffarabad earthquake heavily impacted the area, and slopes in the region have become unstable. This research was carried out to find out which areas, as in Muzaffarabad district, are sensitive to landslides and to define the relationship between landslides and geo-environmental factors using three tree-based classifiers, namely, Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Random Forest (RF), and k-Nearest Neighbors (KNN). These machine learning models are innovative and can assess environmental problems and hazards for any given area on a regional scale. The research consists of three steps: Firstly, for training and validation, ۹۴ historical landslides were randomly split into a proportion of ۷/۳. Secondly, topographical and geological data as well as satellite imagery were gathered, analyzed, and built into a spatial database using GIS Environment. Nine layers of landslide-conditioning factors were developed, including Aspect, Elevation, Slope, NDVI, Curvature, SPI, TWI, Lithology, and Landcover. Finally, the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and the area under the ROC curve (AUC) value were used to estimate the model's efficiency. The area under the curve values for the RF, XGBoost, and KNN models are ۰.۸۹۵ (۸۹.۵%), ۰.۸۹۳ (۸۹.۳%), and ۰.۷۹۰ (۷۹.۰%), respectively. Based on the three machine learning techniques, the innovative outputs show that the performance of the Random Forest model has a maximum AUC value of ۰.۸۹۵, and it is more efficient than the other tree-based classifiers. Elevation and Slope were determined as the most important factors affecting landslides in this research area. The landslide susceptibility maps were classified into four classes: low, moderate, high, and very high susceptibility. The result maps are useful for future generalized construction operations, such as selecting and conserving new urban and infrastructural areas. Doi: ۱۰.۲۸۹۹۱/CEJ-۲۰۲۲-۰۸-۰۲-۰۲ Full Text: PDF

Landslide Susceptibility Modelling; Proportion; Efficient; Random Forest.