Farmers' Perceptions of Climate Change Risk: Comparing the Accuracy of Farmers’ Perceptions with Meteorological Data in Kermanshah Township

Farmers’ perceptions of climate change risk is critically important if they plan to implement appropriate adaptation measures in their farming. This research was conducted to evaluate the accuracy of farmers’ perceptions of climate variability and assess the factors influencing it. To evaluate the accuracy of farmers’ perceptions, this study also explored the pattern and trend of climate variability in the study area, using historical meteorological data analysis. Research sample included ۲۱۷ farmers of Kermanshah Township, who were selected using multistage sampling technique. The accuracy of the farmers’ perceived patterns of local climatic changes was appraised based on graphical analyses of meteorological records during ۱۹۷۰ to ۲۰۱۸. Then, the accuracy of farmers’ perceptions were categorized. Findings showed that the perceptions of ۵۸.۰۶%. of farmers were consistent with the meteorological data, and there was a need to improve the accuracy of farmers’ perceptions of climate variability. Sharing specific local weather information with the community would be one possible way of solving this issue. Also, this study investigated the factors influencing farmers’ perceptions of climate change risk. The results showed that knowledge, personal emotions, social norms, and personal experience collectively accounted for ۴۹.۳% of the farmers’ perceptions of climate change risk variance.

کلیدواژه ها:

Climate variability ، Kermanshah Township ، Risk Perception.