Iran's Export Potential to Brazil (۲۰۰۱-۲۰۱۸): Based on Conventional Indicators and Gravity-VEC Approach
- سال انتشار: 1401
- محل انتشار: Iranian Economic Review Journal، دوره: 26، شماره: 3
- کد COI اختصاصی: JR_IER-26-3_014
- زبان مقاله: انگلیسی
- تعداد مشاهده: 202
نویسندگان
Faculty of World Studies, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
Faculty of World Studies, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
Faculty of Literature and Foreign Languages, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
چکیده
The present study aimed to investigate the expandability of Iranian export to Brazil using both micro and macro-level approaches. At the micro-level, Iran's export that keeps pace with the Brazilian market were identified based on relevant conventional indicators including normalized revealed comparative advantage index, Cosine index and simple estimation of trade potential. Using HS two-digit data from ۲۰۰۱ to ۲۰۱۸, it is shown that Iran has an export potential to Brazil for some commodities. The impact of major macroeconomic factors on Iran's exports to Brazil is analyzed based on the gravity model and applying the vector error correction method (VECM). In the short-run and the long-run, the results confirm that Iran’s GDP, the joint population size of the two countries, air freight cost have a positive effect while Brazil’s GDP and Linder variable harm Iran’s export to Brazil. The ratio of the official exchange rate of Iran to Brazil has a positive effect in the short-run and a negative effect in the long-run. Brazil's membership in the WTO has a significant positive effect on Iran's exports to Brazil. While the impact of financial and nonfinancial sanctions on Iran's exports to Brazil is not significant. In summary, based on the macro-level indicators, the development of trade relations is logically justified. However, trade capacity between the two countries has not been realized in the given period due to political and international circumstances (not because of the lack of economic justification).کلیدواژه ها
Non-oil export, Cosine index, Normalized Revealed Comparative Advantage Index, Trade Potential, Gravity Model, vector error correction modelاطلاعات بیشتر در مورد COI
COI مخفف عبارت CIVILICA Object Identifier به معنی شناسه سیویلیکا برای اسناد است. COI کدی است که مطابق محل انتشار، به مقالات کنفرانسها و ژورنالهای داخل کشور به هنگام نمایه سازی بر روی پایگاه استنادی سیویلیکا اختصاص می یابد.
کد COI به مفهوم کد ملی اسناد نمایه شده در سیویلیکا است و کدی یکتا و ثابت است و به همین دلیل همواره قابلیت استناد و پیگیری دارد.