Nikoo Mansouri - MSC student
Abdorreza Kabiri Samani

In this study, a probabilitydams.based methodology is formulated to evaluate the overtopping risk of earth The risk analysis consist of modeling the random flood generation, wind dynamic aspects, reservoir routing, reservoir geometry, inflow discharge,outflow discharge, dam height, initial water surface and correction factor for increasing water induced by wind. The load combination model for the effects of flood and wind to gather is based on the recommendation presented by IrCOLD Monte Carlo Simulation and Latin Hypercube Sampling were used as the risk computation techniques Vanak dam in Charmahal Bakhtiari province is used as a case study. Risk analysis results show that considering uncertainties of random parameters affect significantly the dam reliability. In Vanak dam overtopping risk is not sensitive to increasing initial water surface.But by increasing uncertainty of inflow flood and reservoir geometry, overtopping risk is increased by malfunction of spillway’s gates.

Uncertainty, Risk analysis, Overtopping, Monte Carlo Simulation Vanak dam