Size and Causes of the Shadow Economy in Iran: An Analysis with the MIMIC Approach
- سال انتشار: 1401
- محل انتشار: فصلنامه بین المللی اقتصاد و سیاست، دوره: 3، شماره: 2
- کد COI اختصاصی: JR_JEOPO-3-2_006
- زبان مقاله: انگلیسی
- تعداد مشاهده: 335
نویسندگان
Department of Management, Science and Technology, Amirkabir University of Technology (Tehran Polytechnic), Iran
Department of Management, Science and Technology, Amirkabir University of Technology (Tehran Polytechnic), Iran
Research Institute of Finance and Banking, Johannes Kepler University, A-۴۰۴۰ Linz, Austria
چکیده
This study aims to estimate the size of the Iranian Shadow Economy (SE) using the multiple indicators multiple causes (MIMIC) approach, a variant of the structural equation modeling (SEM) approach. The application of the MIMIC approach allows for the consideration of established drivers of the SE as well as potential causes that might be of particular importance to the Iranian SE, namely inflation and the size of the construction sector in the economy, the latter of which is considered in this study for the first time. The significant determinants of the Iranian SE are found to be inflation, unemployment, trade openness, and the size of the construction sector. The SE is also found to be positively related to cash usage and negatively related to the labor force participation rate and the Iranian GDP. Using annual data for the ۱۹۷۹-۲۰۱۹ period, our empirical results show that after an initial surge in SE size during the Iran-Iraq war (۱۹۸۰-۱۹۸۸), the Iranian SE generally decreased, although fluctuations were also present. The average SE size during the entire studied period of ۱۹۷۹-۲۰۱۹ is found to be ۳۱.۸۳% of GDP.کلیدواژه ها
Shadow Economy, Undocumented workers, Iran, MIMICاطلاعات بیشتر در مورد COI
COI مخفف عبارت CIVILICA Object Identifier به معنی شناسه سیویلیکا برای اسناد است. COI کدی است که مطابق محل انتشار، به مقالات کنفرانسها و ژورنالهای داخل کشور به هنگام نمایه سازی بر روی پایگاه استنادی سیویلیکا اختصاص می یابد.
کد COI به مفهوم کد ملی اسناد نمایه شده در سیویلیکا است و کدی یکتا و ثابت است و به همین دلیل همواره قابلیت استناد و پیگیری دارد.