Investigation of Regional Flood Intensity in Homogeneous Basins of Kerman Province, Iran

  • سال انتشار: 1401
  • محل انتشار: دو فصلنامه تحقیقات سطوح استحصال آب، دوره: 5، شماره: 1
  • کد COI اختصاصی: JR_WHR-5-1_004
  • زبان مقاله: انگلیسی
  • تعداد مشاهده: 124
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نویسندگان

Rahim Kazemi

Assistant Prof. Soil Conservation and Watershed Management Research Institute, Agricultural Research, Education and Extension Organization, Tehran, Iran

چکیده

Understanding the flood phenomenon and its effective factors is, the prerequisite of its control and management. This phenomenon is influenced by hydrological, climatic and physiographic factors and it has always been one of the most important issues in hydrology. In this research ۹۴ watersheds with corresponding hydrometric stations with the common period (۱۹۷۶-۲۰۱۱) were selected. Instantaneous peak discharge was calculated with a ۵۰-year return period. ۱۵ hydrological, climatic and physiographic parameters, affecting the flood intensity, including: average altitude, catchment area, Gravelius coefficient, slope, main river length, annual average precipitation, average number of rainy days, base flow index, hydrograph recession coefficient, curve number, permeability and percentage exceedances of, Q۲, Q۵, Q۲۰ Q۵۰ were calculated for each catchment. Factor analysis was performed after data standardization and the most important independent factors affecting flood intensity were chosen and multivariate regression equations were extracted by stepwise method. Results showed that R۲ value of all models were between ۸۲% and ۹۳% and indicates that the models were in good agreement with the data. The first model yields an adjusted R۲ of more than ۸۸%. The second, ۸۰% and the third model, more than ۹۱%. The value of predicted R۲ of models ranges between ۷۴% and ۸۰%. The Durbin Watson statistic were between ۱.۸۱ and ۲. The first model yields a standard deviation of ۲.۱ and the second ۱.۴ and the third model, less than ۲.۷.

کلیدواژه ها

effective factors, Factor analysis, Flood intensity, Infiltration, Ungauged catchment

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