A new approach for modeling wind power in reliability studies

ABSTRACT Due to the impermanent and variable characteristics of wind speed, and since wind power generated by wind turbines is completely dependent on wind speed, the power output of the wind power plant is stochastic and varies with time. Therefore, wind power modeling is necessary to evaluate its impact on the reliability of power systems. In this paper, a method for modeling the output power of wind turbines is proposed. This method is a combination of simulation and analytical methods. The mechanical behavior of each wind turbine is modeled by the Monte Carlo method and according to the wind speed of the region, the Markov model is used to produce the output power of the wind farm. The results of this method are compared with those of other methods such as time series ones. In this study, the effect of some network parameters, such as network dimensions, the average coefficient of wind speed on the reliability of the power system has been evaluated. In this regard, historical wind speed data of Manjil area located in the north of Iran is used.

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Keywords: Modeling wind power ، Reliability ، Markov Chain ، Monte Carlo Simulation