Developing probabilistic fire following earthquake ignition models

سال انتشار: 1400
نوع سند: مقاله کنفرانسی
زبان: انگلیسی
مشاهده: 386

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شناسه ملی سند علمی:

ICACU01_0326

تاریخ نمایه سازی: 17 مرداد 1400

چکیده مقاله:

In this paper, Bayesian regression models of fire following earthquake (FFE) ignition are developed that gives a relationship between the intensity of the earthquake and the number of fires that are caused by gas and electrical network damages. At the first step, the data of FFE recent events are collected, and then the Bayesian regression technique is employed to develop a new type of fire following ignition models. Two separate models are developed, the first one for fires that are caused by damage to the gas network, and the second one for fires that are caused by damage to electrical systems. Diagnostics of these models evaluated and final models presented. These models can predict the number of FFE events by determining the source of FFE (such as the damage of gas network), and this is the main difference of this study compared to the recent studies. Finally, for a case study, the developed models are used to predict the mean number and standard deviation of fires that are caused by damage of gas network from a scenario earthquake at the North Tabriz fault.

نویسندگان

Javid Ashrafifar

Graduate student of Earthquake engineering, Sharif University of Technology, Tehran

Arman Delaviz

Graduate student of Earthquake engineering, Sharif University of Technology, Tehran