Ranking and Clustering Iranian Provinces Based on COVID-۱۹ Spread: K-Means Cluster Analysis

  • سال انتشار: 1399
  • محل انتشار: فصلنامه بهداشت محیط و توسعه پایدار، دوره: 6، شماره: 1
  • کد COI اختصاصی: JR_JEHSD-6-1_004
  • زبان مقاله: انگلیسی
  • تعداد مشاهده: 298
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نویسندگان

Farzan Madadizadeh

Center For Healthcare Data Modeling, Departments of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Shahid Sadoughi University of Medical Sciences, Yazd, Iran.

Reyhane Sefidkar

Center For Healthcare Data Modeling, Departments of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Shahid Sadoughi University of Medical Sciences, Yazd, Iran.

چکیده

Introduction: The Coronavirus has crossed geographical borders. This study was performed to rank and cluster Iranian provinces based on coronavirus disease (COVID-۱۹) recorded cases from February ۱۹ to March ۲۲, ۲۰۲۰. Materials and Methods: This cross-sectional study was conducted in ۳۱ provinces of Iran using the daily number of confirmed cases. Cumulative Frequency (CF) and Adjusted CF (ACF) of new cases for each province were calculated. Characteristics of provinces like population density, area, distance from the original epicenter (Qom province), altitude from sea level, and Human Development Index (HDI) were used to investigate their correlation with ACF values. Spearman correlation coefficient and K-Means Cluster Analysis (KMCA) were used for data analysis. Statistical analyses were conducted in RStudio. The significant level was set at ۰.۰۵. Results: There were ۲۱,۶۳۸ infected cases with COVID-۱۹ in Iran during the study period. Significant correlations between ACF values and province HDI (r = ۰.۴۶) and distance from the original epicenter (r = -۰.۶۶) was observed. KMCA, based on both CF and ACF values, classified provinces into ۱۰ clusters. In terms of ACF, the highest level of spreading belonged to cluster ۱ (Semnan and Qom provinces), and the lowest one belonged to cluster ۱۰ (Kerman, Sistan and Baluchestan, Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari and Busher provinces). Conclusion: This study showed that ACF gives a real picture of each provincechr('۳۹')s spreading status. KMCA results based on ACF identify the provinces that have critical conditions and need attention. Therefore, using this accurate model to identify hot spots to perform quarantine is recommended.

کلیدواژه ها

COVID-۱۹, Disease, Epidemiology, Cluster Analysis, Iran.

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