Quantitative Analysis of Seismicity Prior to ۱۱ August ۲۰۱۲, Mw۶.۵ Ahar-Varzeqan Earthquake, Based on Gutenberg-Richter Law

The changes of seismicity patterns before large earthquakes are result of the variation of seismic properties due to energy release and accumulation. Recognition of probabilistic patterns in susceptible future earthquake areas requires accurate and continuous monitoring on behavior of smaller events beforehand the large already occurred earthquakes. The remarkable point of these studies is discussing about plausibility of the power lawmodels of seismicity (Gutenberg–Richter parameters) by a quantitative index like p-value. Estimation of efficient seismicity parameters and attempts to utilization of recorded data in the vicinity of the epicenter for simulating real data and determining the efficiency of models are important steps to quantitative analysis of seismicity prior to target large earthquakes. In ahead study, the adaptability of Gutenberg-Richter parameters and the plausibility of syntheticmodels compared with the observed seismicity before ۱۱ August ۲۰۱۲, Mw ۶.۵, Ahar-Varzeqan earthquake is investigated. The results prove that p-value in comparison with statistical error (σ) of the b-value as a plausibility index of the power-law model will have more reliable performance. Furthermore, effectiveness of Kolmogorov- Smirnov test as a goodness of fit test was confirmed

کلیدواژه ها:

Seismicity patterns ، Large earthquakes ، Gutenberg-Richter law ، p-value ، Ahar-Varzeqan earthquake