Investigating the effect of uncertainty resulting from government economic policies on economic growth

Uncertainty about the government's economic policies prevents capital owners from calculating the long-term return on their capital with sufficient certainty. Therefore, increasing the uncertainty of government economic policies will reduce the expected value of return on capital, reduce the level of investment and therefore stagnation and recession.In this study, the effect of uncertainty resulting from government economic policies on economic growth in Iran during the period 1340-1386 has been evaluated using aggregation techniques and error correction. The variable used to assess the effect of government economic policy uncertainty on economic growth is a composite index that is derived from the variables of government spending (both current and development), tax revenue, liquidity volume and exchange rate margin using ARCH and GARCH models. Is.The results of the study indicate that the increase in uncertainty of government economic policies has reduced economic growth in the period under review. So that in long-term and short-term models, the effect of this index on economic growth is negative and significant. On this basis, it can be suggested to the government that in order to increase economic growth, it can act by establishing a stable procedure in the implementation of economic policies and creating a stable and secure economic environment in society.sociedad

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