فرشاد مومنی - استادیار و عضو هیئت علمی دانشگاه علامه طباطبایی
سعید نایب - استادیار و عضو هیئت علمی دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد تهران مرکزی

This article aims at presenting a descriptive study of the future of Iran’s economy. The most significant feature of the article is that it taps into the new institutional theoretical framework and compares it to a scenario-based model. On this basis, technology is the key concept that explains the reality of development, and the efficiency of ownership law structure is the cause of success of a national economy in the realm of technology. This article attempts to present a picture of Iran’s future economy within the new institutional theoretical framework, through the necessities associated with changes in the structure of ownership law along the path of institution changes. The scenario-based model assumes that any changes in the structure of the ownership law aiming at enhancing technology require that the national economy be able to pay the costs of institution changes, costs that result from an ascending efficacy of institution matrix. In other words, the winners of the institution matrix must be able to pay such costs. In this way, the efficiency of judicial system and political and economic control of the military is the yardstick of the movement. It appears that trends in Iran’s economy are in such a way that the costs of changes in the structure of ownership law aiming at enhancing technology are increasing.

کلیدواژه‌ها: آینده‌نگری, نهادگرایی جدید, فناوری, ساختار حقوق مالکیت, سناریوسازی