مطالعۀ تطبیقی روند بلندمدت تغییرات ساختاری در اقتصاد ایران در مقایسه با اقتصادهای تازه‌صنعتی‌شده

Since structural change, along with traditional factors determining the growth such as labor force, capital and technology, is known in theory and practice as one of the potential factors in growth due to providing the possibility of full and optimal utilization of resources, knowing the its properties in an economy can present a clear picture of possible economic growth. This is true especially when this knowledge is gained and used as a comparative criterion in comparison with indices of structural change in exemplary economies. This paper assesses the long-term trend of structural change in Iran’s economy achieved by Hodrick-Prescot Filtering, in comparison with corresponding variables in newly-industrialized countries. For this purpose, the status of structural variables in the period before the first oil price rise (years before 1973), the oil period (1973 to 1977), the revolution and war period (1978 to 1988), renovation period (1989 to 1998) and the period of implementation of the 3rd Development Plan (1999 to 2004) are analyzed. The results indicate that all structural variables in Iran’s economy had a trend similar to newly-industrialized countries in the period before the rise of oil price. However, due to numerous economic and political shocks, inappropriate changes occurred in the variables in the oil, revolution and war periods. Though some indices have been relatively improved in the periods of renovation and the implementation of the 3rd Development Plan, the variables still remain in an unsuitable condition in comparison with their level and trend in 1960s and the first half of 1970s and also in comparison with the trend of corresponding variables in the newly-industrialized countries.  

کلیدواژه ها:

کلیدواژه‌ها: تغییر ساختاری ، رشد اقتصادی ، توسعۀ اقتصادی ، فیلتر هودریک ـ پرسکات ، کشورهای تازه‌‌صنعتی‌شده ، ایران