The estimation of newly infected cases of Covid-۱۹ with consideration of governmental action and behavior of people in Iran

  • سال انتشار: 1399
  • محل انتشار: دومین کنفرانس ملی ایمنی و بهداشت
  • کد COI اختصاصی: HSEBCNF02_008
  • زبان مقاله: انگلیسی
  • تعداد مشاهده: 696
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نویسندگان

Mahdi Haghbayan

Master student of industrial engineering at Amir Kabir University, Tehran, Iran

Seyed Sepehr Khatami

Student Research Committee, School of medicine, Guilan University of Medical Sciences, Rasht, Iran

Fereshteh Nasrollahi Heravi

Master student of Actuarial Science at Allameh Tabataba'i University, Tehran, Iran

چکیده

The Novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus ۲ (SARS-CoV-۲) has caused ۴۱۴۱۷۹ infectedcases and ۱۸۴۴۰ deaths up to March ۲۵, ۲۰۲۰.The aim of this study was to estimate the new cases of COVID-۱۹ in future days in Iran based on multiplefactors such as governmental actions and people's behavior.We constructed the model based on governmental actions, people's behavior and lag time forgovernmental action. We estimated the governmental actions ratio and people’s behavior with minimum sumsquare error with OptQuest arena software. By estimation the new cases under three scenarios for governmentalactions, we predicted the new cases and cumulative death for different genders for all scenarios.Based on the first scenario, the maximum number of newly infected cases was ۳۱۱۷. Total cumulativedeath for ۱۱۰th day for males and females respectively was ۳۱۵۷ and ۲۲۸۵. According to the second scenario,the maximum number of newly infected cases was ۳۱۱۷. Total cumulative death for ۱۵۱st day for males andfemales respectively was ۳۵۰۴ and ۲۵۳۶. By selecting the third scenario, there were two peak points. In the firstpeak point, the maximum number of newly infected cases was ۳۱۱۷. In the second peak, the maximum numberof newly infected cases was ۳۱۹۰. Based on the result of this study, it seems that the best option for thegovernment is to keep social distance and close economic activity, so the number of new cases will be decreased.

کلیدواژه ها

Coronavirus- COVID-۱۹ -Newly infected cases-governmental action-Model simulation- behavior of people

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